How a devastating natural disaster has intensified an already brutal civil war

The Earthquake’s Aftermath

The earthquake struck central Myanmar, causing widespread destruction across six regions. Official reports indicate over 3,600 fatalities, more than 5,000 injuries, and approximately 17 million people affected. Infrastructure damage includes the destruction of over 48,000 homes, numerous schools, and healthcare facilities, severely hampering relief efforts.

Despite the scale of the disaster, the military junta’s response has been criticized for its inadequacy. The United Nations has condemned ongoing military operations that obstruct humanitarian aid, noting that over 120 attacks have occurred since a ceasefire was declared to facilitate relief efforts.

Ongoing Civil Conflict

The civil war, ignited by the 2021 coup, has intensified, with various ethnic armed organizations and the People’s Defence Force (PDF) challenging the junta’s authority. Notably, the Chin National Defence Force (CNDF) captured the strategic city of Falam after months of combat, marking a significant victory for the resistance.

In Sagaing Region’s Katha Township, fierce battles have resulted in substantial losses for junta forces, with reports of 40 soldiers killed and 29 captured by the PDF.

Political Maneuvering Amid Crisis

Amid the turmoil, the junta has announced plans to hold elections in December 2025, a move widely regarded as an attempt to legitimize its rule. Critics argue that the elections are ill-timed and lack credibility, especially given the ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis.

International actors, including China and India, have shown interest in stabilizing the region, but their involvement has yet to yield significant progress toward peace.

Humanitarian Concerns

The compounded effects of war and natural disaster have led to a severe humanitarian crisis. Over 3.5 million people are internally displaced, and access to essential services remains limited. The UN has called for an immediate cessation of hostilities to allow for unimpeded humanitarian assistance.

Conclusion

Myanmar’s situation in 2025 is a complex interplay of political strife, armed conflict, and natural disaster. The path to stability requires concerted efforts from both domestic factions and the international community to address the root causes of the conflict and to provide much-needed humanitarian aid.