Surveys reveal rising—but still fragile—confidence as inflation falls and new challenges loom

When Christine Lagarde took the helm of the European Central Bank (ECB) in late 2019, public trust in the institution was only just recovering from the euro‑sovereign‑debt crisis. Then came the pandemic, a record‑breaking inflation spike, and the fastest rate‑hiking cycle in the euro’s 25‑year history. Today, as the euro‑area inflation rate drifts back toward the ECB’s 2 percent target, the broader question is no longer just about price stability; it is whether Europeans still believe the Frankfurt‑based bank has the tools—and the mandate—to guard their purchasing power while tackling climate risk, bank fragilities, and a possible digital euro.

The gold standard for tracking public confidence in European institutions is the twice‑yearly *Standard Eurobarometer* survey. Complementing it is the ECB’s own high‑frequency *Consumer Expectations Survey* (CES), which asks some 14,000 households each month to rate their trust in the Bank on a 0‑to‑10 scale. Together, the datasets offer both a snapshot and a moving picture of credibility.

In the autumn 2023 Eurobarometer wave, 43 percent of euro‑area respondents said they ‘tend to trust’ the ECB, against 42 percent who ‘tend not to’. The Spring 2024 edition shows a five‑point jump, pushing the share of those who trust the Bank to an estimated 48 percent—a level last seen before the pandemic. The CES echoes this recovery: average monthly trust has hovered just above the mid‑point of 5 since late 2023, despite lingering cost‑of‑living concerns.

Regression studies suggest that perceived inflation explains roughly half of the variation in trust across time and countries. The ECB’s rapid tightening from zero to 4 percent between July 2022 and June 2024 initially hurt approval, but the visible decline in headline inflation from 10 percent to below 3 percent has since bolstered credibility. The lesson: success in the ECB’s core mandate remains the single strongest trust builder.

Since 2020 the ECB has doubled its social‑media footprint and begun publishing anonymised accounts of Governing Council debates. Survey experiments show that plain‑language explanations tend to raise trust scores by 4–6 percentage points, but only among respondents with higher financial literacy.

Trust is far from uniform: historically it tops 60 percent in Ireland, Finland, and the Netherlands, but languishes below 30 percent in Greece and Italy. Younger, college‑educated and higher‑income Europeans are more likely to view the ECB favourably, while political polarisation—especially on the far right—correlates strongly with distrust. The 2024 Eurobarometer reports the sharpest trust rebound in Slovakia (+9 pp) and Lithuania (+9 pp).

Lagarde’s push to incorporate climate risk into collateral and asset‑purchase frameworks has won praise from environmental groups but triggered backlash inside the ECB’s own staff union and from some member‑state politicians who fear ‘mission creep’. Whether broad societal trust rises or falls may depend on the Bank’s ability to pursue green objectives without compromising on price stability.

Public consultations on a potential retail central‑bank digital currency show support hovering around 46 percent, with privacy concerns cited as the main obstacle. A robust privacy‑by‑design architecture could therefore be a reputational asset, but any perceived threat to commercial bank deposits could erode hard‑won trust.

ECB staff projections put inflation at 2.2 percent in 2025 and 1.9 percent in 2026. If those numbers stick, institutional trust is likely to edge higher. The bigger danger lies in a policy‑credibility mismatch: if geopolitical shocks push energy prices back up—or if the banking sector wobbles under higher rates—confidence could unwind quickly.

Europeans’ faith in the ECB has proved surprisingly resilient to war, pandemic and inflationary scare, climbing back toward pre‑COVID levels in early 2025. Yet at roughly one in two citizens, that trust remains a glass half full. The credibility dividend the Bank enjoys today rests on keeping inflation down tomorrow—and on persuading voters that new ventures, from green finance to a digital euro, serve the same ultimate goal: a stable currency for 350 million Europeans.