Q2 economic resilience in Europe contrasts with cooling U.S. job openings and waning consumer confidence

Spain’s economy surprised analysts by accelerating in the second quarter, while across the Atlantic, U.S. labor market indicators signaled a moderation in hiring alongside slipping consumer sentiment. The juxtaposition of these reports underscores diverging trajectories in two major Western economies and raises questions about the global growth outlook.

Data released by the National Statistics Institute (INE) showed that Spain’s GDP expanded by 0.7% in Q2 compared with the previous quarter—outperforming the 0.6% consensus forecast and accelerating from a 0.6% gain in Q1. On a year‑on‑year basis, output rose 2.8%, also above expectations of 2.5% and marking the sixth consecutive quarter of growth close to 3%. Domestic demand remained robust, driven by household consumption (up 0.8%) and business investment (up 2.1%), while exports plateaued amid soft external demand.

Spanish authorities welcomed the numbers. Economy Minister Nadia Calviño called the results “a testament to our resilient recovery” and highlighted the labor market’s strength, as unemployment slipped to its lowest rate since early 2008 (10.29%). Yet she cautioned that global headwinds—from geopolitical tensions to a possible slowdown in key trading partners—could temper growth later this year.

Meanwhile in the United States, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed job openings fell to 7.4 million, down from 7.7 million in May and below the 7.5 million forecast. The pullback in vacancies reflects caution among employers contending with high borrowing costs and trade uncertainties, even as layoffs remained subdued and quits continued to signal worker confidence.

Further clouding the U.S. outlook, the Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index dipped to 93.0 in June from 98.4 in May, erasing nearly half of the prior month’s gains. Economists attribute the erosion in sentiment to persistent concerns over inflation and President Trump’s tariff policies, which continue to weigh on expectations for future income and business conditions.

Market participants and policymakers will scrutinize these data ahead of upcoming central bank meetings. In Madrid, the European Central Bank’s governing council is poised to assess whether stronger growth in peripheral economies justifies further monetary easing. In Washington, the Federal Reserve will weigh cooling labor demand and soft consumer attitudes against still‑elevated inflation readings.

Analysts at Oxford Economics suggest that Spain’s outperformance may prove fleeting if external demand weakens, forecasting a deceleration to 0.5% growth in Q3. In the U.S., Deutsche Bank economists expect job openings to stabilize around 7.3 million by year‑end and consumer confidence to recover only gradually—even if headline inflation falls toward the Fed’s 2% target.

Investors responded with mixed reactions: the euro strengthened modestly against the dollar, while U.S. equity futures slipped on the cooling labor data. Fixed-income markets priced in a reduced probability of Fed rate hikes, but still anticipated that the central bank would maintain restrictive policy through the fall.

As the second quarter closes, Spain’s resilience offers a glimmer of optimism for the eurozone, while U.S. data point to a labor market transition that could influence consumer spending and the broader economic recovery. The coming months will reveal whether these divergent paths converge or continue to reflect regional idiosyncrasies in the post‑pandemic global economy.