Renewed fighting along the Ethiopia-Eritrea frontier threatens to destabilize the Horn of Africa and undo years of fragile reconciliation

Ethiopia’s fragile peace is once again under threat as escalating border clashes with Eritrea risk plunging the Horn of Africa into a new cycle of conflict. The latest violence, which erupted in early August, has already claimed dozens of lives and displaced thousands of civilians on both sides of the disputed frontier.

Local officials and humanitarian agencies report that heavy fighting has been concentrated near the contested Bure region, a strategic area rich in mineral resources and long seen as a flashpoint between the two nations. Eyewitness accounts speak of artillery exchanges, the movement of armored vehicles, and sporadic aerial strikes.

The renewed hostilities come less than seven years after the landmark 2018 peace agreement, which ended two decades of intermittent conflict and was hailed internationally as a breakthrough for regional stability. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki even shared the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize recognition for their roles in fostering reconciliation. But analysts warn that deep-seated mistrust, unresolved territorial disputes, and shifting political alliances have left the peace process vulnerable.

“This is not just a border skirmish—it is a symptom of the unresolved tensions that have simmered beneath the surface since the so-called peace deal,” said Dr. Fantu Alemu, a Horn of Africa specialist at Addis Ababa University. “Both governments face domestic pressures that make compromise politically costly.”

Reports suggest that the clashes may have been triggered by competing claims over newly discovered mineral deposits, as well as accusations of cross-border support for armed militias. Ethiopian officials accuse Eritrea of backing separatist groups in the Tigray and Afar regions, while Asmara insists it is acting in self-defense against Ethiopian military incursions.

The fighting has raised alarm in neighboring countries, particularly Djibouti and Sudan, which fear a spillover of violence and refugee flows. The African Union (AU) has called for “an immediate cessation of hostilities” and offered to mediate, while the United Nations has warned of a looming humanitarian crisis if the situation is not brought under control.

Aid groups say the clashes are already disrupting food supply chains in an area heavily reliant on cross-border trade. “Markets are closing, roads are blocked, and civilians are trapped between advancing forces,” said Mariam Idris, an emergency coordinator for the International Rescue Committee. “We are deeply concerned about the humanitarian fallout, especially with drought conditions worsening.”

Diplomatic sources suggest that behind the scenes, regional powers—including Somalia and Kenya—are quietly urging both sides to return to dialogue, fearing that renewed war could unravel years of security cooperation in combating piracy, arms trafficking, and extremist insurgencies in the Horn.

Despite the gravity of the crisis, there appears to be little appetite in either Addis Ababa or Asmara for significant concessions. Ethiopian state media continues to frame the conflict as a defense of national sovereignty, while Eritrean outlets accuse Ethiopia of “aggression under the guise of diplomacy.”

International analysts warn that without rapid de-escalation, the conflict could evolve into a protracted war, drawing in regional actors and further destabilizing one of the world’s most geopolitically sensitive regions. “The Horn of Africa sits at the crossroads of global trade routes and security concerns,” said Jean-Paul Morel, a senior fellow at the International Crisis Group. “What happens here resonates far beyond the borders of Ethiopia and Eritrea.”

For now, the people living along the contested border remain caught in the middle, facing displacement, uncertainty, and the grim prospect of yet another war on their doorstep.