With economies losing steam and algorithms everywhere, the scarcest input is still human discovery. Policymakers are racing to turn cognitive capital into GDP—without waiting for machines to invent.

VIENNA —Across advanced and emerging economies alike, growth has become stubborn. Investment is up in some sectors, but productivity—the alchemy that turns hours into higher living standards—remains weak. Artificial intelligence has captured boardrooms and budgets, yet even its champions concede a paradox: until AI can autonomously make discoveries and defend them, it is still people who create new knowledge. The immediate growth lever, then, is not more compute but more human ingenuity.

Governments are beginning to say the quiet part out loud: brains are infrastructure. In practice, that means treating the conditions that grow and protect cognitive ability with the same seriousness as ports and power lines. From prenatal nutrition and clean air to mental‑health care and research funding, a new policy agenda is taking shape around what economists call “cognitive capital.” It is a deliberately broad term, spanning early‑childhood development, schooling, lifelong learning, talent mobility and the scientific system itself.

The prize is large. When researchers look back at past bursts of prosperity, they find a common thread: discovery. Penicillin, the transistor, recombinant DNA, the lithium‑ion battery—each sprang from human curiosity and craft, often supported by public money and translated by private firms. AI tools can accelerate the search, but they still need humans to pose questions, design experiments, spot anomalies and judge whether a result matters. In labs and startups this summer, the highest returns often come from “centaur” teams—people who use AI to draft hypotheses, analyse data and simulate outcomes, then apply judgment to decide what to test next.

The brain economy, spelled out
The countries moving fastest share a playbook. First: start early. Reducing toxic exposures, expanding high‑quality childcare and pre‑K, and tackling reversible causes of learning loss—hearing and vision problems, untreated ADHD, depression and anxiety—can lift cognitive performance across a generation. School systems are adding evidence‑based reading instruction and math coaching, and pairing teachers with AI tutors that personalise practice without replacing human explanation.

Second: protect and upgrade adult brainpower. That means sleep‑health campaigns, safer industrial practices to reduce head injuries, and easier access to treatment for addiction and mental illness. Employers, newly alert to the cost of “brain fog,” are redesigning work: fewer aimless meetings, more deep‑work hours, optional four‑day weeks in some pilots, and apprenticeship ladders that move people into higher‑value tasks rather than out of the firm.

Third: make discovery a national mission. Agencies modelled on high‑risk, high‑reward funders are expanding challenge grants in energy, biomedicine and materials. The focus is outcome‑based: fund teams to crack a problem, not to publish a paper count. Universities are simplifying tech‑transfer terms; public purchasers are acting as first customers for novel solutions, from low‑carbon cement to diagnostics. Immigration rules are loosening for researchers and founders, with faster recognition of foreign credentials.

Fourth: build the places where ideas multiply. Housing shortages around research hubs choke off innovation by pricing out students, post‑docs and early‑stage founders. Several cities are re‑zoning land for lab clusters and student housing, tying new permits to transport links and child‑care spaces. The quiet variable here is time: in innovation, months matter. Planning systems that can deliver sites in a year rather than five are themselves a competitive advantage.

Finally: deploy AI as a complement, not a crutch. Compute vouchers and shared cloud credits are widening access to advanced models for small labs and public‑interest projects. New rules are pushing for “open but safe” datasets, differential privacy, and experiment logs that improve reproducibility. Where models are used to screen molecules or design parts, human overseers pre‑register protocols and audit surprises. The point is not to slow progress; it is to ensure that the people closest to the science stay in control of it.

The political economy of brainpower
This agenda is not cost‑free. Early‑years programmes take a decade to show up in national statistics. Visa reform is contentious. Housing approvals spark local resistance. And in universities, rewarding risky ideas means funding some that will fail. But the counter‑case is stronger: a world that underinvests in brains pays through slower growth, sicker lives and a thinner pipeline of discoveries.

Two debates will shape the next year. One is equity. Cognitive capital compounds: families with money can already buy enrichment, quiet spaces and expert help. Public policy can narrow gaps—by making core services universal and by targeting hidden obstacles such as lead exposure, substandard school buildings and long clinic waiting lists. The other debate is measurement. Governments count bridges and broadband; they are only beginning to publish “knowledge accounts” that track discovery rates, the diffusion of new techniques and the time it takes for a good idea to reach the median classroom or clinic.

What success looks like by 2026
If the brain‑first agenda sticks, the signs will be visible within a year: more apprentices in hard‑to‑fill technical roles; faster regulatory pathways for clinical trials and energy pilots; a rise in mission‑oriented grants and public pre‑procurement; fewer learning barriers in schools and a rise in teacher applications; new housing permits near research districts; and a steady drumbeat of small, useful discoveries in labs and workshops—not just eye‑catching demos on social media.

The bottom line
AI will keep speeding up routine analysis and widening access to expertise. But until machines can originate robust, generalisable discoveries, human minds remain the growth engine. Countries that invest in those minds—protecting them, training them, welcoming more of them and pointing them at hard problems—will move the dial. Brainpower is not a metaphor; it is an industrial strategy.