Eight core members will add a modest 137,000 barrels per day next month, easing the pace but underscoring a pivot toward volumes over price.

OPEC+ has agreed to raise oil production again next month, extending a six‑month campaign to claw back market share in the face of softer prices and slowing demand. In an online meeting on Sunday, eight core members of the Saudi Arabia‑led group approved a collective increase of 137,000 barrels per day from October — less than recent monthly steps but consistent with a gradual strategy to bring withheld barrels back to market.

The decision marks a continuation of output additions that began in April following years of supply restraint. After larger hikes through the summer driving season, the alliance signaled it will proceed more cautiously as the northern hemisphere heads into a seasonal lull in consumption.

The pace of increases has clearly shifted. The group added roughly 411,000 b/d in June and July and about 555,000 b/d in August and September. October’s 137,000 b/d is a down‑shift, reflecting both a cooler demand outlook and the group’s desire to gauge market reaction month by month.

Eight producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — are participating in the latest phase. Their move also begins unwinding a separate 1.65 million b/d layer of voluntary cuts more than a year ahead of schedule, after the alliance spent the past six months reversing an earlier 2.2 million b/d tranche. Officials emphasized they retain flexibility to accelerate, pause or reverse additions depending on prices and inventories, with the next check‑in set for October 5.

“The barrels may be small, but the message is big,” said Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy, a former OPEC official. Analysts view the decision as a signal that the producer group is prioritizing long‑term market share and customer relationships, even at the risk of tolerating lower prices in the near term.

Oil prices edged higher after the announcement, helped as well by fears of tighter flows if the United States levies new sanctions on buyers of Russian crude. Benchmark Brent futures rose back toward the mid‑$60s per barrel in early Monday trading, while West Texas Intermediate firmed in tandem — a rebound that recouped part of last week’s declines.

In practice, the market impact may be smaller than the headline number. Several members are still compensating for prior overproduction, and some — notably Russia and Iraq — face export bottlenecks and field constraints that could limit actual supply. That leaves Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which hold the bulk of spare capacity, best positioned to add barrels quickly and seize market share from higher‑cost rivals.

The demand picture is also softening. As summer ends, seasonal refinery maintenance and slower mobility typically trim crude runs. Energy agencies and private forecasters expect a modest surplus in the fourth quarter and into 2026 if OPEC+ keeps increasing output on schedule, especially as non‑OPEC supply from the Americas continues to rise.

For Riyadh, the calculus blends economics and geopolitics. Cheaper crude eases pump prices in key consuming nations while protecting Saudi long‑term customer ties in Asia. At home, lower prices are a headwind for budget math but may be offset by higher export volumes and non‑oil growth as the kingdom pursues its diversification agenda.

Inside the coalition, enforcing discipline remains a challenge. Saudi Arabia has pressed members such as Kazakhstan to curb overproduction, and the UAE’s recent capacity upgrades have complicated quota diplomacy. Still, the narrow October increase reduces the risk of a policy misstep while keeping pressure on laggards to comply.

Traders will now watch cargo programs and loading data for signs that the barrels arrive on schedule — and for any hint that OPEC+ may tweak plans if prices slide or inventories swell. The group’s stated willingness to pause or reverse additions gives it optionality to respond to a weaker macro backdrop or renewed supply disruptions.

The bottom line: OPEC+ is trying to thread the needle — protecting longer‑term market share without triggering a price slump. October’s modest increase keeps that strategy intact while buying time to reassess demand and compliance ahead of the next meeting.

Sources (selected):

– Reuters wires (Sept. 7–8, 2025) on the OPEC+ decision, monthly increase schedule, and market reaction.

– Argus Media report (Sept. 7, 2025) on the participating ‘OPEC+ 8’ members and implementation details.