Verisure, ISS STOXX and Swiss Marketplace Group lead a tentative queue as advisers say investor appetite is creeping back.

Europe’s long-ailing IPO machine is about to learn whether 2025’s late-summer calm can be turned into dealmaking momentum. After two patchy years in which flotations routinely slipped, several high‑profile names are lining up to go public as soon as the autumn window opens. Among the most closely watched are Verisure, the Geneva‑based home‑security group; ISS STOXX, the governance, index and data arm of Deutsche Börse; and Swiss Marketplace Group (SMG), the classifieds network behind Switzerland’s leading real‑estate, automotive and generalist platforms. Bankers and lawyers involved across the three transactions describe sentiment as “cautiously optimistic”: investor meetings are busier, pre‑marketing lists are longer and a handful of high‑quality accounts are leaning in again — but only at the right price.

The stakes are larger than any single debut. European equity capital markets have lagged global peers since the 2021 boom faded, with proceeds shrinking and a procession of household names choosing New York or private capital instead. This year’s first half underlined that reality: new-issue volumes and funds raised across the region remained thin, leaving ECM desks heavily reliant on block trades and secondaries. If a fresh cohort can price cleanly — and trade up — it would reset expectations for 2026 and give private‑equity owners alternatives to yet another sale‑and‑leaseback with the same consortium of buyout rivals.

Why now? Volatility has eased from the spring squalls, European benchmark indices have ground higher, and, crucially, recent deals have held their gains — the single most persuasive data point for hesitant IPO buyers. On the buyside, portfolio managers say they are ready to fund clear, cash‑generative growth stories and mission‑critical infrastructure, while continuing to shun complicated roll‑ups or businesses whose margins depend on stimulus‑era demand. Advisers also report a subtle shift in tone from boards that spent the past 18 months reheating dual‑track processes: sell‑side committees are once again willing to contemplate public markets if valuations are sensible and free float is meaningful.

That context frames Verisure, the region’s most anticipated large‑cap listing. Backed by Hellman & Friedman, the monitored‑alarm specialist has grown into one of Europe’s biggest subscription services by household penetration, riding a blend of do‑it‑for‑me installation and app‑based monitoring. Executives have signalled that Stockholm — a market with deep experience pricing recurring‑revenue models — is the preferred venue should they proceed, with advisers sketching outcomes that imply an enterprise value north of €20bn. For IPO investors, the pitch writes itself: subscription retention, low churn, and steady net adds in a category that has proven resilient across cycles. The pushback is equally familiar: how to price leverage and customer‑acquisition costs after a decade of cheap money; whether growth in southern Europe can keep pace with Scandinavia; and how much of the proceeds will go to deleveraging rather than expansion.

ISS STOXX, by contrast, is a classic “picks‑and‑shovels” play on capital markets themselves. Rolled up under Deutsche Börse in recent years, the business combines the STOXX and DAX index franchises with governance, stewardship and ESG services inherited from ISS, alongside corporate‑solutions and market‑intelligence units. With high recurring revenue, strong margins and multi‑year client contracts, it is the sort of cash machine public investors have shown a renewed appetite for. Advisers exploring a Frankfurt listing have floated proceeds in the region of €1bn depending on the size of the free float, with the wrinkle that Deutsche Börse could also buy back a minority stake rather than list it — a reminder that strategic alternatives remain in play across Europe’s pipeline.

Closer to home for Swiss investors, SMG is preparing a SIX Swiss Exchange debut that would test appetite for online classifieds after a difficult couple of years for digital advertising. Formed in 2021 as a joint venture between TX Group, Ringier, the insurance mutual Mobiliar and investor General Atlantic, SMG operates category leaders such as Homegate and ImmoScout24 in property, AutoScout24 in cars, and generalist marketplaces like Ricardo and Tutti. People familiar with the deal say an offering of roughly CHF1bn could value the group around CHF4.5bn, with at least a fifth of the company likely to change hands. Bankers pitching the deal point to network effects and pricing power in property listings, improving monetisation in autos and payments, and operating synergies from integrating the portfolio under one umbrella. Sceptics will focus on cyclicality in real estate volumes and how quickly SMG can translate traffic leadership into rising ARPA without denting user growth.

The venue question — always sensitive in Europe — is back on the agenda too. Zurich and Frankfurt have emerged as the most active hubs in late summer marketing, while London’s drought has stretched from cyclical to structural. That geographic tilt matters: Swiss and German institutions have been steadier incremental buyers of domestically listed assets this year, while the UK continues to wrestle with outflows from domestic equity funds and a still‑evolving reform package. For global managers, however, venue is secondary to fundamentals: credible governance, IFRS numbers that square with private‑company KPIs, and a path to free cashflow that does not rely on aggressive add‑ons.

What will investors demand? Three themes recur in pre‑deal soundings. First, profitable growth now trumps “growth at any cost.” Second, sellers need to leave upside on the table: books that clear only with generous cornerstone allocations and wall‑to‑wall friends‑and‑family demand will be read as weak signals. Third, float size matters. A free float of 25–35% with genuine daily liquidity gives generalists permission to build positions over time and reduces the risk of technical squeezes that can punish early‑stage holders.

There are early signs the market can meet those tests. The healthiest recent European debuts are trading at or above issue and have kept to forecast, improving confidence that IPOs are investable again rather than exotic one‑offs. In sector terms, infrastructure‑adjacent assets and indispensable business‑to‑business platforms are screening best; discretionary e‑commerce and ad‑supported media remain a tougher sell. Against that backdrop, Verisure’s subscription economics, ISS STOXX’s index‑and‑data annuities and SMG’s leading verticals tick many of the right boxes — provided pricing lands inside, not beyond, investors’ published cost‑of‑equity hurdles.

Still, the market has not entirely healed. Syndicate desks note that windows are short and require near‑perfect execution; any late‑breaking macro shock can push launches into the next quarter. Rate‑cut expectations are fluid, energy prices are a live variable as winter approaches, and US equity leadership continues to siphon attention and risk budget from Europe. Dealmakers also concede that many would‑be issuers are running dual tracks into 2026, ready to flip to a private sale if a rival sponsor shows up with a full‑price cheque and limited closing risk.

The autumn queue may also grow. Industrial names such as Ottobock and infrastructure‑linked assets like TenneT have explored options, and sponsor‑owned platforms from software to specialty health continue to test the waters with analyst education and non‑deal roadshows. If the first two or three IPOs clear at sensible valuations and hold in the aftermarket, more will follow quickly as boards rush to secure calendar slots before year‑end blackout periods and holiday‑thinned books shorten execution timetables.

For now, the mood is pragmatic. Advisers are counselling clients to under‑promise and over‑deliver; to publish audited numbers that map cleanly to the prospectus; to be realistic about leverage; and to build a register that mixes quality local institutions, global generalists and sector specialists. Do that, and Europe’s battered new‑issue market could finally put together a quarter that feels normal again. Miss the mark, and the region risks another season of “almosts” — and a pipeline that drifts into 2026 with more sellers than buyers.