Støre’s Labour‑led bloc ekes out a majority as voters prioritise stability amid war in Ukraine, an unsettled Arctic and sharper NATO debates

Norway’s centre‑left government has retained power after a closely fought general election that turned as much on security and steadiness as on tax and welfare. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre’s Labour Party finished first and, together with other left‑leaning allies, passed the 85‑seat threshold to control the 169‑member Storting. The result delivers Støre a second term and extends a Nordic counter‑trend to the rightward shifts seen elsewhere in Europe.

With virtually all ballots counted, the Labour‑anchored bloc secured roughly 87 seats to about 82 for the right‑of‑centre parties, according to official tallies and media projections. Labour’s national vote share hovered around 28 percent, translating into approximately 53 seats, while the anti‑immigration Progress Party vaulted to a record near 24 percent and about 47 seats, cementing its position as the main opposition. The Conservatives slid to the mid‑teens—roughly two dozen seats—marking one of their weakest results in decades. Urban gains and tactical cooperation among smaller parties ultimately gave the centre‑left its edge.

Voters’ preference for a “safe pair of hands” reflected a tense strategic backdrop. Russia’s war in Ukraine has pushed NATO to harden its northern flank; Norway not only sits astride key North Atlantic sea lanes but also shares a 195.7‑kilometre land border with Russia in Finnmark. Oslo reached the alliance’s 2‑percent‑of‑GDP defence‑spending benchmark in 2024 and has signalled a steady climb in the years ahead, a trajectory that reassured risk‑averse voters even as commitments to strong public services stayed on the table.

Energy and affordability concerns reinforced the appetite for continuity. Since Europe shed most Russian pipeline gas, Norway has become the EU’s top supplier, a role that underscores the country’s leverage but also invites debate over domestic costs and climate policy. The Government Pension Fund Global—better known as the oil fund—has swelled to roughly $1.9–$2.0 trillion. Its size and ethical‑investment rules were central to arguments about whether to draw more on the fund to cushion households from high food and power bills, and about how the fund should handle contentious holdings.

Electoral geography told its own story. Rural counties tilted more strongly to Progress than in 2021, channelling frustration over fuel prices, wind‑power licences and farm incomes. City voters powered Labour, the Greens and the Socialist Left, while the far‑left Red Party consolidated in parts of Oslo and the north. The Centre Party, pivotal in the last parliament, shrank sharply to single‑digit seats but retained leverage out of proportion to its size. The Greens crossed the four‑percent threshold and will send new faces to the Storting, including the youngest MP in modern Norwegian history.

Governing arithmetic will be delicate. Støre can attempt to run a minority administration with confidence‑and‑supply from one or more partners, or assemble a narrower coalition with formal cabinet posts for a small ally. Either path requires deft handling of tensions inside the left‑of‑centre camp. The Greens favour halting new petroleum exploration and mapping a managed decline of oil output by mid‑century; Labour counters that existing fields and near‑term gas exports are integral to Europe’s energy security and to Norway’s ability to finance the green transition at home.

On security, continuity is likely. The long‑term defence plan points to better‑equipped land forces in the High North, more maritime patrols and faster mobilisation of the home guard. Oslo has also embraced a broader notion of “security spending,” from hardening undersea cables and power infrastructure to building larger munitions stockpiles. In practice that may mean new procurement for air defence and surveillance, plus closer coordination with allies to protect critical seabed assets and subsea data links.

For markets, the headline is stability. No drastic changes are expected to Norway’s fiscal rule—which caps how much of the oil fund can be used each year—or to petroleum‑tax tweaks adopted in recent budgets. What may come quickly is relief for households and industry battered by high electricity prices and grid bottlenecks. Ministers are also eyeing cleaner‑power build‑outs—onshore upgrades where local consent can be won and a tighter timetable for offshore‑wind auctions—meant to keep exporters competitive while cutting emissions.

Abroad, allies will read the result as a reaffirmation of Norway’s role as a steady anchor at the top of Europe. Since 2022, Oslo has been among Ukraine’s largest per‑capita supporters, pairing arms deliveries with multi‑year civilian aid and technical help for demining and power‑grid repairs. Within NATO, Norway’s voice carries weight in debates over the Arctic and Atlantic sea lanes, and it has deepened practical cooperation with the United Kingdom and the United States on maritime surveillance and anti‑submarine warfare.

The opposition, though chastened, is not powerless. Progress’s leap to second place gives it agenda‑setting strength on migration, policing and car taxation, and it will dominate early parliamentary theatre. The Conservatives, bruised but unbowed, will try to rebuild trust and reclaim the mantle of economic competence. In committees—where the Storting does much of its real work—the centre‑right can still slow or reshape legislation, especially if Labour’s partners splinter over climate and energy trade‑offs.

Global currents will continue to buffet Norwegian politics. A more transactional Washington has pressed NATO allies to spend more and has recast elements of trans‑Atlantic trade; Russia’s war shows no sign of ebbing; and the Middle East remains volatile. At home, the balance between decarbonisation and competitiveness is a running argument, complicated by the fact that gas revenues finance generous welfare. The centre‑left prevailed by persuading a narrow majority that it can hold those tensions in check.

For now, the message from voters is straightforward. They want predictability: cautious budgets, dependable public services and a foreign‑policy posture that stays firmly embedded in the alliance system while keeping a steady hand on the Arctic. Støre begins his second term not with a blank cheque but with a mandate to keep Norway on an even keel through a turbulent stretch of history. In today’s Europe, that kind of mandate counts as a win.