Sudan’s catastrophe worsens, eastern Congo flares, jihadists press the Sahel and Somalia, and flashpoints from Libya to Mozambique keep the continent on edge

The contours of Africa’s active wars have shifted again as of September 2025. A grinding civil war in Sudan is inflicting staggering civilian harm; fighting in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is intensifying despite diplomacy; Somalia’s long war with al‑Shabaab remains lethal; and the Sahel’s insurgencies continue to spill across borders. Meanwhile, Libya is wobbling along a fragile front line, and Islamic State‑linked violence in northern Mozambique has resurged. Below is a quick but comprehensive tour of the major fronts shaping the continent’s security picture this month.

Sudan: A war entering an even darker phase
Eighteen months after battles first erupted between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Darfur is once again the epicentre of horror. In mid‑September, a drone strike during evening prayers destroyed a mosque in El‑Fasher, North Darfur, killing scores of worshippers, many of them children. The attack encapsulates how urban warfare, blockade tactics, and indiscriminate strikes have pushed civilians into the crosshairs. Aid groups warn that the siege of El‑Fasher has severed access to food and health care, with disease and malnutrition rising fast. Nationwide, displacement has surged into the tens of millions, making Sudan one of the world’s largest protection and hunger emergencies. Diplomatic tracks remain disjointed, and mass violations in Darfur—including targeted killings and sexual violence—are drawing sharper scrutiny from UN human-rights investigators.

Eastern Congo: Airstrikes amid a faltering peace track
In North Kivu, the Congolese army (FARDC), working alongside pro‑government militias known as “Wazalendo,” has mounted air attacks on the Rwanda‑backed M23 rebels around Masisi and Walikale. The strikes, reported on September 19 and 21, suggest Kinshasa is testing bolder tactics even as a U.S.-brokered understanding with Rwanda in June failed to stop frontline movement. Fighting continues to displace civilians around Goma’s approaches, and the UN mission, MONUSCO, still faces severe access and mandate constraints as its drawdown proceeds. Talks on prisoner exchanges have shown glimmers of progress, but none sufficient to reverse the combat dynamics or ease the humanitarian squeeze on North Kivu’s towns and mining corridors.

Somalia: International strikes and a grinding insurgency
Somalia’s war with al‑Shabaab entered September with a series of internationally coordinated airstrikes. U.S. Africa Command, acting in support of the federal government, hit targets tied to al‑Shabaab and ISIS‑Somalia between September 10 and 13 near Badhan and Kismayo. These strikes highlight the continued centrality of air power and special operations as the African Union’s transition mission winds down and Somali forces try to hold reclaimed areas. Al‑Shabaab, for its part, retains freedom of movement in parts of central and southern Somalia, mounts complex raids on garrisons and checkpoints, and taxes trade routes—reminding Mogadishu that territorial gains can prove fleeting without political reconciliation and sustained local security delivery.

The Sahel: A metastasizing insurgency
Across the central Sahel—Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger—violence by jihadist groups aligned to al‑Qaeda (JNIM) and the Islamic State’s Sahel Province remains acute. Over the past month, militants have struck army units and volunteer militias with deadly ambushes and IED attacks, while pressuring rural communities to accept their parallel administrations. Regional juntas, now aligned in the Alliance of Sahel States, continue to sever ties with traditional security partners and expel or downgrade UN and Western engagements, even as the fighting migrates southward toward littoral states such as Benin and Togo. The strategic picture is one of shifting military balances, shrinking civic space, and mounting humanitarian need across borders.

Libya: A fragile standoff turns volatile
The country’s long “frozen conflict” is running hot again. Tripoli saw renewed clashes in and around the Janzour district on September 21, as rival militias aligned with the internationally recognized Government of National Unity traded fire. The capital’s security architecture remains fragmented, and militia politics increasingly intersect with the migration economy along the western coast, where recent maritime tragedies and alleged militia involvement in people smuggling have stirred international alarm. With two rival power centers still entrenched—Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah in Tripoli and Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army in the east—the risk of a wider escalation persists even without front lines shifting dramatically.

Mozambique: The insurgency rebounds in Cabo Delgado
After a relative lull brought by Rwandan and regional deployments, insurgents in northern Mozambique have re‑energized their campaign. Through July and August, fighters linked to the Islamic State in Mozambique (also called al‑Shabab, distinct from Somalia’s group) pushed south into Ancuabe and Chiúre districts and resurfaced along the Macomia coast, prompting fresh displacement on a scale not seen since early this year. Reports from August and early September point to attacks on civilians and renewed propaganda aligned with ISIS narratives, while Maputo leans again on external partners to stem the tide. The humanitarian picture has worsened as thousands flee yet another cycle of raids and counter‑raids.

South Sudan: Political trial, renewed clashes, and a fragile peace
The government’s treason case against First Vice President Riek Machar opened on September 22 in Juba, deepening a political crisis sparked by deadly clashes earlier this year in Upper Nile State. The proceedings risk unraveling the already‑stalled peace roadmap and have coincided with spasms of violence in the north that killed soldiers and civilians this month. With a transition repeatedly delayed and trust between President Salva Kiir and Machar at a nadir, the possibility of wider fragmentation cannot be dismissed.

Ethiopia: The Amhara front simmers
While Addis Ababa touts reconstruction after the 2022 Tigray ceasefire, combat persists in the Amhara region between federal forces and local Fano militias, with sporadic clashes and abuses documented through 2024 and into 2025. The conflict’s political roots—resentment over security restructuring, disputed territorial control after the Tigray war, and center‑region mistrust—remain unresolved. International rights groups and diaspora monitors continue to report arbitrary detentions and civilian harm as fighting ebbs and flows across Amhara and neighboring Oromia.

What to watch next
Sudan: Whether besieged cities like El‑Fasher can be reached by aid at scale, and whether drones and artillery continue to be used against urban civilian targets.
DRC: If FARDC’s air operations blunt M23 advances—or instead trigger further cross‑border tensions with Rwanda that diplomacy cannot contain.
Somalia: Whether Somali forces can hold cleared areas as the AU drawdown proceeds, and if targeted strikes degrade militant revenue streams.
Sahel: Signs of further southward spread into coastal West Africa, and whether regional juntas consolidate their alliance around new external partners.
Libya: Militia realignments in Tripoli and emerging evidence of state‑linked complicity in migrant smuggling along the coast.
Mozambique: Whether insurgent pushes toward the south become sustained and whether community protection improves to reduce repeat displacement.
South Sudan & Ethiopia: Political decisions in Juba and security reforms in Ethiopia could be inflection points—either calming tensions or igniting broader confrontation.

The bottom line: Africa’s most violent conflicts are not static fronts. They are connected theatres shaped by regional rivalries, illicit economies, and fragile political bargains. In September 2025, the wars in Sudan and eastern Congo remain the deadliest and most destabilizing, while the Sahel and Somalia grind on and peripheral flashpoints—from Libya’s militias to Mozambique’s ISIS‑linked insurgency—threaten to re‑ignite or spill across borders. Without coordinated diplomacy that puts civilian protection first, the arc of violence will only lengthen.

Sources (accessed September 2025):
• Associated Press & UNICEF reports on the El‑Fasher mosque strike and casualties in Sudan, mid‑September 2025.
• UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR) update on Sudan’s worsening civilian harm and ethnic violence, 19 September 2025.
• Reuters and Security Council Report updates on DRC–Rwanda/M23 dynamics and diplomacy, late August–September 2025.
• U.S. Africa Command press releases on September 10–17 airstrikes in Somalia.
• Council on Foreign Relations Global Conflict Trackers on the Sahel and Somalia (September 2025 updates).
• ACLED/Cabo Ligado and regional reporting on renewed violence in Mozambique, August–September 2025.
• Reuters and AP reports on South Sudan’s trial of Riek Machar and recent clashes, September 2025.
• Human Rights Watch 2025 report and UK Home Office analysis for Amhara conflict context.
• ISPI/Atlantic Council and other analyses on Libya’s militia tensions and migration dynamics, September 2025.