Despite a rocky regular season, both teams’ emphasis on power hitting positions them as strong contenders for another historic showdown in October.

Bad News, America: The numbers suggest we might be in for another Yankees-Dodgers World Series. Despite a challenging summer for both teams, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are poised for a potential rematch in the Fall Classic, thanks to their explosive home run power. The Yankees, plagued by bullpen issues and inconsistency, and the Dodgers, who faced injury woes and underperformance from key players like Mookie Betts, still managed to lead the league in home runs. This trend is not unique to them—other playoff contenders like the Seattle Mariners, Chicago Cubs, and Philadelphia Phillies also boast strong power-hitting lineups.

As the MLB postseason begins, the importance of home runs has become increasingly evident. Teams that hit more home runs have dominated both the regular season and the playoffs, with a winning percentage of 84% in the postseason over the past decade. This is especially crucial in October, where scoring has declined and batting averages have dropped, making the home run a game-changer.

With sluggers like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Cal Raleigh in their lineups, the Yankees and Dodgers are well-equipped to thrive in the high-stakes environment of the playoffs. The Mariners, who added power hitters at the trade deadline—third baseman Eugenio Suárez and first baseman Josh Naylor—have also emerged as a serious contender. Their home run total has surged, and their identity as a team is built around taking walks, stealing bases, and hitting bombs.

Meanwhile, teams with weaker power-hitting lineups, such as the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres, face challenges. The Brewers, despite having the best regular-season record, ranked 22nd in home runs, while the Padres, despite stars like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, ranked near the bottom in home run production. This underperformance in power hitting could be a significant hurdle in October.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone emphasized the importance of hitting for power, noting that teams that do so usually advance in the playoffs. Mariners general manager Justin Hollander echoed this sentiment, stating that while other offensive elements are important, hitting home runs is the most critical factor.

The data supports this strategy: since 2015, over 47% of all runs scored in the postseason came via the home run, compared to 41% during the regular season. This underscores the growing importance of power hitting in October baseball, where the game becomes more defensive and less forgiving for teams that rely on small ball tactics.

As the postseason kicks off, the stage is set for a dramatic and historic showdown that could once again see the Yankees and Dodgers battle for baseball’s ultimate prize. With the game increasingly favoring power, the teams that hit the most home runs are likely to emerge victorious.