Three years after taking office, Giorgia Meloni cements her place as Italy’s most durable leader in a decade, prioritising fiscal discipline and political continuity over economic expansion.

When Giorgia Meloni first took the oath of office in October 2022, few expected the leader of Italy’s post‑fascist Brothers of Italy party to endure this long at the helm of a fractious nation. Three years later, Meloni stands not only as a political survivor but as a symbol of stability — a word rarely associated with Italian politics.

Meloni’s coalition, originally seen as a volatile alliance of right‑wing and nationalist forces, has matured into an efficiently managed power bloc. While her fiery rhetoric on immigration and sovereignty has softened, her commitment to fiscal discipline has hardened.

The Italian prime minister has weathered economic headwinds, including slower‑than‑expected EU recovery‑fund disbursements and stagnating productivity. Yet she remains popular: polls in early October show approval hovering near 52 percent, remarkable in a country where governments often collapse within months.

A Deficit Trimmed, Investors Reassured

Meloni’s finance team, led by Giancarlo Giorgetti, has managed to shrink Italy’s budget deficit from 5.3 percent of GDP in 2022 to an estimated 3.8 percent this year — edging closer to the European Union’s fiscal targets.

This prudence has pleased bond markets. Yields on Italian ten‑year bonds fell below 3.5 percent in September, narrowing the spread with German bunds to a three‑year low. “The government has shown discipline without drama,” said an analyst at UniCredit. “That’s exactly what investors wanted.”

The cost, however, has been slow growth. Italy’s GDP is projected to expand by just 0.7 percent in 2025, lagging behind the eurozone average. Public investment remains restrained, and small businesses — long the country’s economic engine — complain of “stability fatigue.”

“Meloni has given us predictability, but not momentum,” said Paolo Rossi, an entrepreneur in Bologna. “We don’t fear tomorrow — but we don’t dream about it, either.”

From Firebrand to Fixture

Meloni’s evolution has been strategic. Once defined by populist defiance, she has recast herself as a pragmatic conservative leader. She forged pragmatic ties with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, maintaining access to EU funds while tempering her earlier euroscepticism.

Domestically, she tightened immigration policies and curtailed some welfare programs, but avoided deep confrontations with trade unions or the judiciary. Her approach has drawn comparisons to Angela Merkel’s — steady, cautious, and technocratic beneath a populist veneer.

Critics say her government’s social agenda remains regressive, citing attempts to limit surrogacy and tighten rules on same‑sex parenting. Yet even opponents admit Meloni’s control of her coalition has been masterful. Matteo Salvini’s League, once a rival, is now firmly subordinate, while Forza Italia maintains loyalty under Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani.

Europe Watches Closely

As Europe braces for another cycle of uncertainty — from French elections to renewed migration surges — Meloni’s Italy is emerging as a pillar of predictability. Her influence in Brussels has quietly grown; she is now courted as a mediator between conservative Eastern governments and centrist Western blocs.

“The irony is that Meloni, once feared as a disruptor, has become a stabiliser,” noted one EU diplomat. “She talks tough but governs cautiously.”

Still, challenges loom. Public debt exceeds 135 percent of GDP, and the youth unemployment rate hovers near 20 percent. With inflation easing but wages stagnant, her promise of “a strong, fair Italy” remains unfulfilled for many families.

A Balancing Act

Three years in, Meloni’s gamble on stability over growth has bought her political time. Whether it buys Italy a sustainable future remains uncertain. For now, she projects confidence: “We have restored trust — in institutions, in our economy, and in ourselves,” she told supporters last week in Rome’s Piazza del Popolo.

In a country accustomed to turmoil, Giorgia Meloni’s calm endurance may be her boldest achievement yet.