From trade to security, European powers brace for a U.S. strategy that could sideline their influence — and spark a scramble to define a new role in the world.

As the world watches the resurgence of Donald Trump on the global stage, European capitals are quietly sounding the alarm: a U.S.-led foreign‑policy pivot may be set to relegate the European Union and its member states from centre‑stage to supporting cast.

In recent weeks, senior officials in Berlin, Paris and Brussels have begun circulating internal assessments of what they call “American unilateralism 2.0” – a return to bold strategic manoeuvres, tougher trade stances and a willingness to re‑set alliances on U.S. terms. The concern: Europe may not just miss the boat — it might find its seat already taken.

A shift in tone, a shift in influence
Since his return to prominence in U.S. politics, Trumpism has been marked by an “America First” posture that prizes transactional alliances, strategic surprises and direct competition with China and Russia. European diplomats anticipate that many of the next moves — be it on tariffs, digital regulation or military commitments — will be planned with Washington’s priorities in mind.

For Brussels, this raises uncomfortable questions about the relevance of the European Union and the collective diplomatic clout of its 27 member states. “We risk being the side‑letter in America’s next big act,” one EU‑based diplomat admitted. “When Washington signals first, we respond second – or worse: not at all.”

Germany, long a pillar of European international influence, is re‑examining its posture in the light of what insiders describe as “an American playbook rewrite.” With economic ties to China, defence commitments to NATO, and increasing dependence on Washington for Ukraine‑ and Middle‑East policy, Berlin is struggling to articulate an independent voice.

Trade and tech: Europe’s invisible margins
Trade policy is emerging as one of the clearest fault‑lines. Trump’s team is reportedly drafting a new framework of bilateral trade deals and digital‑economy checks that will sidestep traditional multilateral institutions where Europe has had historical leverage.

For example, Brussels’ efforts to enforce the Digital Markets Act and its regulatory ambition in Big Tech may find themselves overshadowed by U.S. initiatives that tie regulation to strategic competition with China — leaving European regulators scrambling to follow rather than lead.

The EU’s Generalised Scheme of Preferences, its influence in the World Trade Organization, even its negotiating position on semiconductor supply chains — all risk being reduced to echoes of U.S. policy rather than drivers of their own. The question many European capitals now ask: “What do we bring to the table if Washington writes the playbook?”

Security alliances: drift or recalibration?
On the security front, the dynamics are no less fraught. With NATO already adjusting to a less predictable U.S., regional European partnerships — from the Northern European defence pact to the Mediterranean “Global Gateway” — are under pressure. Washington’s increasing focus on the Indo‑Pacific theatre and competition with Beijing means that Europe’s traditional role of U.S. partner in the eastern flank may become secondary.

The EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy, long a flagship of Brussels’ ambition for strategic autonomy, could be re‑defined as a complementary rather than complementary force. France and Poland are already quietly negotiating tighter bilateral ties with Washington — a sign that some capitals suspect the EU level may now be too slow for the fast‑changing U.S. agenda.

A leadership vacuum — and opportunities
Yet amid the concern, there is also recognition of opportunity. Europe might be sidelined from U.S.‑led initiatives, but that forces innovation. Observers point out that if Washington’s commitments shift away from Europe, the EU and its national governments must step up — to fill gaps in trade, digital governance, defence and diplomacy.

Paris has floated a “European strategic sovereignty” initiative, seeking to strengthen military cooperation among EU states without Washington. Berlin is exploring a more ambitious European‑Asia trade corridor. The European Commission is working on regulatory diplomacy that would make Brussels less dependent on U.S. rule‑making and more of a rule‑maker in its own right.

But all of these efforts hinge on political will and consensus across national capitals — which remain uneven and slow. The clock is ticking while Washington’s agenda accelerates.

What to watch this week

• A planned summit in Brussels between U.S. Secretary of State and EU foreign‑policy chiefs is expected to set the tone for Washington‑Europe relations in 2026.
• The European Parliament is poised to debate a new industrial‑policy package aimed at reducing “over‑dependence” on U.S. tech standards.
• Behind closed doors in Berlin and Paris, defence‑ministry officials are mapping out scenarios in which the U.S. might reduce its commitments in eastern Europe and shift to Asia.

Bottom line
European capitals face a dilemma: either they move quickly to redefine their role and voice, or they risk being left behind by a U.S. agenda spinning at top speed. The age of reflexive trans‑Atlantic alliance is giving way to a world where the shadow of Trumpism looms large — and Europe must decide whether to stand under it or step into the light.