Advisory board warns adaptation plans are lagging behind climate reality, but says practical solutions remain within reach

Europe has been urged to prepare for up to 3 °C of global warming by the end of the century, according to a stark new assessment from the continent’s scientific advisory board on climate. The warning lands with particular urgency as policymakers, urban planners and infrastructure operators reassess how prepared Europe truly is for a rapidly shifting climate.

The projection far exceeds the ambitions set out under the Paris Agreement, which seeks to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and ideally to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet scientists caution that current global emissions trajectories, combined with slow progress on deep decarbonization, mean Europe must plan for a hotter and more volatile future even as mitigation efforts continue.

A 3 °C world would transform daily life across the continent. Southern Europe could face prolonged and more intense heatwaves that strain health systems, energy grids and water supplies, while northern regions are expected to confront heavier rainfall, rising river levels and heightened flood risks. Wildfire seasons, already lengthening in parts of the Mediterranean, could become a recurring and devastating feature of summer.

According to the advisory board, Europe’s current adaptation strategies, though significant in scope, are not calibrated for impacts of this magnitude. Existing flood defenses, urban cooling plans and wildfire management systems were largely designed with lower warming scenarios in mind, creating what experts describe as a widening adaptation gap between projected climate risks and the continent’s readiness to absorb them.

Heat is emerging as one of the most immediate threats. Record-breaking summers in recent years have offered a preview of what sustained high temperatures can mean, including excess mortality among vulnerable populations, agricultural stress and disruptions to transport infrastructure as rail lines buckle and roads deteriorate under prolonged heat.

Urban areas are particularly exposed because dense construction and limited green space amplify the urban heat island effect, trapping warmth overnight and compounding health risks. Retrofitting buildings with improved insulation, expanding tree cover and redesigning public spaces to enhance airflow are among the measures experts say must accelerate without delay.

Flooding presents another formidable challenge as heavier downpours increase the likelihood of flash floods in cities and riverine flooding in rural regions. Coastal communities face the additional pressure of sea-level rise combined with storm surges, and scientists argue that adaptation efforts must be scaled up and coordinated across borders to address shared river basins and coastlines.

Wildfire risk, once concentrated in southern latitudes, is expanding northward as drought conditions spread. Land management practices, emergency response capacity and cross-border firefighting cooperation will require significant reinforcement, with prevention strategies such as controlled burns and vegetation management seen as essential alongside rapid response systems.

Despite the daunting outlook, experts stress that adaptation is not synonymous with surrender. Preparing for higher levels of warming is described as an essential complement to cutting emissions, and many of the recommended measures are practical, economically viable and capable of delivering immediate co-benefits for public health and economic stability.

Upgrading infrastructure to withstand higher temperatures and heavier rainfall can reduce long-term repair costs and safeguard productivity, while expanding urban green spaces not only cools neighborhoods but also improves air quality and mental well-being. Modernizing water systems enhances resilience to both droughts and floods, strengthening communities against multiple risks at once.

The advisory board calls for climate risk to be embedded systematically into public investment decisions so that new highways, rail networks, housing developments and energy facilities are designed with future climate conditions in mind rather than historical averages that no longer apply. Financial regulators are also encouraged to integrate climate risk into stress tests and disclosure frameworks to steer capital toward resilient projects.

Adaptation, scientists emphasize, must place social equity at its core because vulnerable communities, including the elderly, low-income households and those in climate-exposed occupations, are disproportionately affected by extreme weather. Policies that guarantee access to cooling centers, affordable insurance and emergency support systems are seen as critical components of a credible resilience strategy.

The message to Europe’s leaders is clear as the continent moves through the closing stretch of winter and looks toward another potentially volatile summer season. Waiting for perfect global cooperation on emissions reductions is not an option, and adaptation planning must assume a higher-risk baseline while mitigation efforts continue with renewed urgency.

Preparing for 3 °C does not mean accepting it as inevitable, scientists insist, because every fraction of a degree avoided reduces the scale of disruption and human suffering. Yet resilience is built through foresight, and the continent that pioneered environmental regulation and climate diplomacy now faces the test of translating warnings into infrastructure, governance and everyday preparedness before the window for orderly action narrows further.