After years of strategic oversight, Russia acknowledges a united EU front, says geopolitical analyst Dominique Moïsi.

In a recent interview at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, French geopolitical analyst Dominique Moïsi delivered a striking assessment: “Moscow finally understands that Europe exists.” This statement reflects a profound shift in Russian strategic calculations, Moïsi argues, rooted in the European Union’s demonstrated unity during successive crises, most notably the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

For decades, Western observers have cautioned against underestimating European resolve—yet, time and again, Moscow appeared to view the EU as a fractured entity, vulnerable to internal disputes and nationalistic rivalries. Moïsi contends that this belief prevailed within the Kremlin’s inner circles until the unprecedented scale of EU sanctions following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 shattered that illusion. “The breadth and speed of the sanctions regime,” Moïsi explains, “conveyed a political cohesion that Russia had neither anticipated nor prepared for.”

Beyond economic measures, the EU’s unity manifested in military assistance packages, coordinated diplomatic efforts, and public declarations of solidarity with Kyiv. While individual member states occasionally voiced reservations over energy dependencies or migration flows, the prevailing narrative within Brussels remained one of collective purpose. According to Moïsi, this cohesion was reinforced by the activation of the bloc’s strategic autonomy frameworks, including the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) on defense and the European Peace Facility funding, marking a de facto militarization of European foreign policy.

Moscow’s leadership, Moïsi suggests, is now grappling with the implications of a European Union that no longer hesitates to project power and protect its interests. Russian official statements have shifted in tone—from dismissive warnings of “EU weakness” to begrudging acknowledgments that Berlin and Paris, supported by Warsaw and Rome, wield significant influence over NATO and transatlantic policy. “When President Putin refers to the EU as ‘one actor,’” Moïsi notes, “he betrays a newfound respect for its capabilities, even as he seeks to exploit any fault lines.”

This realization has produced two divergent responses within Russian strategic circles. A hardline faction advocates for intensified hostility, aiming to fracture the EU through energy coercion and hybrid tactics, such as cyber operations and disinformation campaigns targeting Eastern European electorates. Conversely, a pragmatic group, motivated by the economic toll of Western isolation, pushes for selective rapprochement, particularly on issues of energy security and food exports. Moïsi warns that both approaches carry significant risks: “Escalation may deepen Russia’s pariah status, while overt concessions could fuel domestic dissent among nationalist constituencies.”

For the EU, Moïsi argues, this moment represents both an opportunity and a test of endurance. The bloc must sustain its unified stance, even as internal pressures mount. Upcoming debates over the 2028–2034 Multiannual Financial Framework illustrate this challenge: proposals for increased defense spending compete with social and climate priorities, while some governments press for greater national discretion. Yet, Moïsi remains optimistic: “Europe’s response to Moscow’s belated awakening will define the continent’s geopolitical role for a generation. Unity is no longer optional.”

Political leaders in Brussels have echoed Moïsi’s sense of purpose. European Council President Charles Michel recently praised the EU’s “strategic clarity” and endorsed plans for a more robust European Defence Fund. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen affirmed that “Europe will meet 100% of its common defence commitments,” signaling a departure from reliance on NATO alone. Meanwhile, Eastern European capitals, long skeptical of Brussels’ ambitions, have found reassurance in coordinated investments in border security and resilience programs.

Critics, however, caution that the EU’s newfound cohesion may falter under external and domestic stressors. The recent surge in energy prices, driven partly by Russian gas supply constraints, has sparked protests in Mediterranean countries. Public sentiment surveys indicate wavering support for sanctions among some demographics, raising the specter of political backlashes in key member states. Moïsi acknowledges these vulnerabilities but insists that the EU’s strategic foundations are stronger than ever. “Russia’s recognition of a real Europe,” he concludes, “compels us to act as one—or risk ceding the future to a more aggressive and unpredictable power.”

As Moscow recalibrates its policies in response to this revelation, Europe stands at a crossroads. The lessons of recent years—of solidarity, sacrifice, and the hard-won defense of shared values—will determine whether the Union can uphold its vision of a stable, rules-based order. Dominique Moïsi’s warning serves as both insight and admonition: Europe’s moment of unity has arrived, but its survival depends on unwavering commitment to a common cause.