The proposed arrangement would reopen one of the world’s most important energy corridors under divided traffic supervision, while barring Tehran from imposing compulsory tolls on passing vessels.
Iran and Oman are moving closer to a temporary agreement intended to restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, offering a possible diplomatic route out of a crisis that has disrupted energy markets and intensified military tensions across the Middle East.
Negotiators are finalising a draft arrangement that would establish separate routes for vessels entering and leaving the Persian Gulf. Under the proposal, incoming ships would travel through a northern lane closer to Iran and coordinate their passage with Tehran, while outbound vessels would use a southern route nearer Oman.
The plan would give Iran a formal role in managing incoming traffic but would not permit it to impose mandatory tolls or passage fees. Tehran could potentially receive voluntary payments for clearly defined services, such as security or environmental assistance, although the precise language governing such contributions remains under discussion.
The draft is expected to remain in force for an initial period of 60 days. During that window, mediators hope the opening of the waterway could support a broader reduction in hostilities and create conditions for renewed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions and regional security.
Iranian and Omani officials have already reached an understanding on the geographic coordinates of the proposed shipping routes, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry. A joint announcement is being prepared, although important political and operational questions have yet to be settled.
The negotiations represent significant progress, but they do not yet amount to a final agreement. Iranian officials have cautioned that the discussions remain vulnerable to interference and wider regional tensions, while regional sources say the draft is still undergoing review in Tehran.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategically important maritime passages in the world. It connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, providing the main export route for oil and liquefied natural gas produced by several Gulf states.
Disruption in the strait has increased shipping costs, forced some companies to delay or reroute cargoes and contributed to higher insurance premiums. The consequences extend well beyond the Middle East because prolonged restrictions can affect global fuel prices, industrial production and inflation.
The proposed arrangement seeks to restore predictable traffic without formally granting either country exclusive authority over the entire waterway. Oman, which has frequently served as an intermediary between Iran and Western governments, would oversee vessels leaving the Gulf, while Iran would coordinate incoming ships travelling near its territorial waters.
For Tehran, the agreement would provide recognition of its role in the strait without securing its earlier demand for compulsory charges. For the United States and Gulf governments, the absence of tolls is intended to preserve the principle that international shipping should be able to use the passage without paying Iran for access.
The arrangement nevertheless remains controversial. Some regional governments fear that giving Tehran responsibility for incoming traffic could allow it to delay vessels, collect sensitive information or apply political pressure selectively, even without imposing formal fees.
American officials have publicly rejected the suggestion that the proposal would give Iran control over the strait. Washington has emphasised that any acceptable settlement must guarantee safe and unrestricted international navigation.
Questions also remain about how the agreement would be enforced. Negotiators must determine how vessels will communicate with Iranian and Omani authorities, how security incidents will be investigated and what mechanism will be used to resolve accusations of interference.
Mine clearance is another important element. The proposed framework reportedly calls for the central part of the strait to be cleared within 30 days, potentially allowing additional shipping lanes to reopen if the initial arrangement proves successful.
The political risks are equally significant. Iran’s civilian leadership may support a temporary compromise, but the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps plays a central role in the country’s maritime security policy. Resistance from powerful hardline factions could complicate implementation or cause the agreement to collapse after it is announced.
Previous attempts to reduce tensions have failed when the parties disagreed over sanctions relief, military activity and the sequencing of their commitments. The current proposal therefore appears designed as a limited confidence-building measure rather than a comprehensive settlement.
Iran has maintained that it is negotiating directly with Oman rather than the United States. Washington, however, has received details of the draft, while Oman and Qatar have been encouraging wider concessions that could include limited sanctions relief or measures supporting Iranian oil exports.
The deal could provide immediate economic benefits. A credible reopening would allow more tankers and cargo vessels to pass through the strait, potentially reducing freight costs and war-risk insurance premiums. It could also ease pressure on global energy prices if markets become convinced that shipments will continue without further interruption.
Yet the response of shipping companies may offer a more reliable measure of progress than political announcements. Operators are likely to wait for evidence of regular vessel movements, effective mine clearance and stable security conditions before returning to normal schedules.
The proposed agreement therefore represents an important but fragile diplomatic opening. It would not resolve the confrontation between Iran and the United States, nor would it settle disputes over Tehran’s nuclear activities and regional influence.
Its immediate objective is narrower: to reopen a vital international waterway and prevent the shipping crisis from triggering a broader military and economic escalation.
Whether it succeeds will depend not only on the final wording of the draft but on the willingness of Iran, Oman, the United States and regional governments to honour an arrangement built on limited trust. For global markets, even a temporary period of stability in the Strait of Hormuz could provide substantial relief. But until vessels begin moving safely and consistently, the agreement will remain a diplomatic promise rather than a completed reopening.
