An exit poll put Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ United List well ahead in Latvia’s parliamentary vote, but coalition arithmetic remains open as voters weigh defence, living costs and relations with Russia.

Latvians voted on October 3 in a parliamentary election dominated by security concerns, the cost of living and the country’s position on NATO’s eastern flank. An exit poll placed the United List of Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs in first place with about 35.6%, according to Reuters. The figure is an exit-poll estimate, not a final certified result.

Latvia’s Central Election Commission is responsible for publishing the official count for the 100-seat Saeima. Coalition formation remains crucial because Latvia’s fragmented party system often requires several parties to negotiate a governing majority even when one list finishes clearly ahead.

Security has moved to the centre of domestic politics

Latvia shares a border with Russia and Belarus, and the war in Ukraine has made defence policy a day-to-day political issue rather than a distant foreign-policy debate. Airspace incidents, military spending and the resilience of critical infrastructure have become part of the electoral conversation.

That environment tends to favour parties able to present themselves as reliable partners inside NATO and the European Union. It also raises the cost of ambiguity over support for Ukraine, sanctions policy and defence investment.

A strong first-place finish would not settle coalition politics

Latvia’s proportional system encourages multiple parties to compete for representation. A leading party must still determine which partners can provide a parliamentary majority and whether their programmes are compatible on budgets, social policy and security.

That makes coalition arithmetic as important as the headline vote share. A party can win the election yet face difficult negotiations if potential partners disagree over spending priorities or personnel. The final shape of government may therefore take longer to emerge than the initial result.

Living costs remain a counterweight to defence priorities

Voters are not choosing on security alone. Household budgets, energy prices, public services and wage growth continue to influence political loyalties. The challenge for any incoming government will be to finance defence and infrastructure without allowing social pressure to erode public support.

That trade-off is increasingly familiar across Europe. Governments on the eastern flank face strong arguments for higher security spending while citizens still expect investment in healthcare, education and regional development.

Relations with Latvia’s Russian-speaking population remain sensitive

Latvia’s politics are also shaped by questions of language, citizenship and historical memory. The war in Ukraine has sharpened debates about Russian influence and information security while forcing politicians to distinguish between legitimate security concerns and the rights of citizens at home.

Managing that distinction is important for social cohesion. Policies intended to reduce hostile influence can lose legitimacy if they are perceived as targeting communities rather than specific security risks.

The official count will determine the real mandate

Exit polls provide an early picture, but seat allocation depends on the full national and regional vote. Small changes around electoral thresholds can alter coalition possibilities significantly, particularly when several parties cluster near the minimum required for representation.

The Central Election Commission has said official procedures will continue as provisional results are consolidated, with final results certified after the statutory process. Until then, claims about a governing majority should remain conditional.

What is already clear is that Latvia’s election has become another test of how European democracies on Russia’s border combine security, economic pressure and coalition politics. The first exit poll points toward continuity at the top, but the composition and durability of the next government will be decided only after the count and negotiations are complete.