A new UNHCR warning ahead of COP31 puts climate exposure among displaced people in focus, as a separate UN report reveals how far adaptation funding trails developing countries’ needs.
Nearly 90 million forcibly displaced people live in countries exposed to severe climate hazards, UNHCR warned on 6 November. Reuters reports that the agency’s findings, released ahead of COP31 in Antalya, put the share at almost three-quarters of the world’s forcibly displaced population.
The figure describes exposure among people already displaced. UNHCR’s explanation of climate and displacement stresses that climate pressures interact with other drivers, including conflict. Treating the estimate as a count of people displaced solely by climate change would misread it.
The danger continues after the initial flight
UNHCR’s adaptation guidance describes the conditions behind that exposure. People forced from home often live in fragile shelter and places vulnerable to floods, droughts, storms or other environmental stresses. Limited resources can leave them with few ways to prepare or recover.
The consequences extend beyond damage to accommodation. Lost livelihoods and pressure on water or agricultural land can make daily survival harder and strain relations with host communities. UNHCR’s approach therefore includes local residents as well as displaced populations, recognising that they often rely on the same services and natural resources.
Its proposed responses include making early-warning and disaster-preparedness systems reach displacement-affected areas, improving shelter resilience and supporting sustainable livelihoods. These are measures that need to function before the next emergency. Distributing relief after a flood remains necessary, but cannot substitute for reducing exposure beforehand.
The wider finance gap
A separate UN Environment Programme report released on 4 November places the warning in a broader financial context. UNEP estimates developing countries’ adaptation needs at around $305 billion annually by 2035. International public adaptation finance from developed to developing countries reached only $28.2 billion to $31.7 billion in 2024.
UNEP says even meeting the COP30 aspiration to triple international public adaptation finance by 2035 would cover only 20–29% of estimated needs. Its assessment also identifies institutional obstacles to implementation. Increasing a headline funding commitment therefore addresses only part of the problem; translating funds into functioning projects is another.
Those figures refer to developing countries’ adaptation requirements overall. They are not a dedicated estimate for refugees or displacement programmes. Read alongside UNHCR’s warning, they show why protecting displaced communities must compete for attention within a much larger shortfall.
What inclusion means in practice
UNHCR’s water and sanitation work illustrates the delivery challenge. The agency seeks to include refugee-hosting areas in local systems rather than depend indefinitely on parallel emergency services. Climate-resilient planning includes monitoring groundwater, protecting infrastructure and using renewable energy for pumping and treatment.
For COP31, the practical test will be whether financing and national plans reach places where displacement and climate vulnerability overlap. An announcement in a negotiating room offers limited protection until a settlement receives reliable warnings, safer shelter or a water system able to withstand the next shock. The new warning makes that gap between commitment and delivery harder to overlook.
Sources
Reuters: UNHCR’s 6 November climate warning
UNHCR: Strengthening climate adaptation and resilience
UNEP: 2026 Adaptation Gap Report findings
