Carlos Vila Nova is seeking a second term without the party that carried him to office, as economic hardship and a bitter political rupture reshape one of Africa’s most closely watched elections.
SÃO TOMÉ — Voters in São Tomé and Príncipe went to the polls on Sunday in a tense presidential election that has placed the country’s reputation for democratic stability against a backdrop of political conflict, economic frustration and growing international attention.
President Carlos Vila Nova is seeking a second five-year term, but this time as an independent. He won the presidency in 2021 with the backing of the Independent Democratic Action party, known by its Portuguese initials ADI, before an increasingly bitter dispute divided the former allies.
The rupture followed Vila Nova’s dismissal of Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada in January 2025. The president accused the government of prolonged absences and institutional dysfunction, while the decision triggered a wider confrontation over constitutional authority and the balance of power between the presidency and parliament.
ADI, which holds a parliamentary majority, is now supporting its parliamentary leader, Nito Viegas D’Abreu. The contest has therefore become more than a conventional presidential race: it is also a direct test of whether Vila Nova can defeat the political organisation that helped install him in office.
D’Abreu has placed youth unemployment and migration near the centre of his campaign, arguing that the country must create sufficient economic opportunities to prevent young citizens from leaving the islands. His challenge reflects widespread dissatisfaction over limited employment, high living costs and the slow pace of economic development.
The remaining candidates include former prime minister Jorge Bom Jesus and independent jurists Miques João Bonfim and Eugénio Tiny. Five candidacies were validated by the Constitutional Court, although Bom Jesus remained on the ballot after attempting to withdraw from the race.
The crowded field increases the possibility that no candidate will secure the absolute majority required to win in the first round. Under the electoral rules, the two leading contenders would proceed to a runoff, scheduled for August 9 if necessary.
Approximately 142,300 people were registered to vote, including a significant overseas electorate. Polling stations opened at 7 a.m. and were scheduled to close at 6 p.m., with preliminary results expected by late Sunday or Monday.
Despite its small population, São Tomé and Príncipe has often been described as one of Central Africa’s more durable multiparty democracies. The former Portuguese colony introduced competitive politics in 1990 and has generally experienced peaceful transfers of power through elections.
That record has given this year’s vote particular significance. Political institutions have faced increasing pressure since an alleged coup attempt in 2022, while the president’s confrontation with the former prime minister has raised questions about institutional stability and the interpretation of constitutional powers.
The election is being observed by an international mission from the European Union. A core team arrived in June, followed by long-term and short-term observers deployed across the islands to monitor campaigning, voting, counting and the wider electoral environment.
Domestic concerns are dominated by the economy. São Tomé and Príncipe depends heavily on imports, development assistance and a relatively narrow productive base centred on agriculture, fishing and tourism. Cocoa remains an important export, but it has not generated enough growth or employment to transform living standards.
Voters have reported frustration over inflation, fuel shortages, electricity cuts, corruption and limited public services. These pressures are especially acute for younger citizens, many of whom see migration as their most realistic route to better employment and education.
The country’s vulnerability is intensified by its geographic isolation. Food, fuel and manufactured goods must often be imported at high cost, leaving households exposed to changes in international prices and disruptions to transport.
Successive governments have promised to modernise infrastructure, improve electricity supply and attract investment. Progress has been constrained by limited state resources, administrative weaknesses and recurring political disputes.
Vila Nova has presented himself as a stabilising figure capable of standing above party interests. His independent candidacy allows him to argue that the presidency should not be controlled by a parliamentary majority or by the leadership of the party that once supported him.
His opponents, however, portray the split with ADI as evidence of political fragmentation rather than independence. They argue that the president’s decisions contributed to instability and that stronger coordination between the executive institutions is necessary to govern effectively.
The dispute highlights the unusual nature of São Tomé and Príncipe’s semi-presidential system. The president serves as head of state, while the prime minister leads the government and is supported by parliament. The arrangement depends heavily on cooperation when the presidency and parliamentary majority belong to competing political camps.
Vila Nova’s dismissal of Trovoada demonstrated how quickly that balance can become contentious. Supporters of the president said intervention was necessary to resolve a dysfunctional administration. Critics warned that presidential authority was being stretched in a way that could weaken parliamentary government.
The election will determine whether voters endorse Vila Nova’s interpretation of the presidency or return political influence to ADI through D’Abreu.
The vote also has a geopolitical dimension. The archipelago lies in the Gulf of Guinea, near strategically important maritime routes and offshore energy zones. Its location has attracted interest from larger international powers seeking security partnerships and diplomatic influence.
A military cooperation agreement with Russia has contributed to external scrutiny, while São Tomé and Príncipe continues to maintain relationships with European countries, China, the United States and regional African partners.
For a small state with limited resources, maintaining those relationships can produce valuable investment and security assistance. It can also expose domestic politics to broader competition among global powers.
The next president will therefore face the challenge of protecting national autonomy while seeking external support for development, maritime security and infrastructure.
The office itself has fewer direct economic powers than the government, but the president can influence political stability, foreign relations and the functioning of state institutions. In a divided political system, those responsibilities can become decisive.
A Vila Nova victory would represent a remarkable personal triumph over his former party and strengthen the argument that voters distinguish between individual candidates and established political organisations.
A victory for D’Abreu would restore ADI’s control over the presidency and could create greater alignment between the head of state and the parliamentary majority. It could also mark a political comeback for Trovoada’s faction after his removal from government.
A runoff would prolong the uncertainty and encourage parties to negotiate alliances with eliminated candidates. In a relatively small electorate, endorsements and regional voting patterns could significantly affect the second round.
Whatever the outcome, the election will not resolve the country’s economic challenges immediately. The next administration will still need to confront unemployment, unreliable electricity, inflation and the outward migration of skilled young people.
The deeper question is whether São Tomé and Príncipe’s political institutions can continue to manage conflict through elections rather than confrontation.
For decades, the islands have offered a comparatively hopeful democratic example in a region frequently affected by military interventions and disputed transitions.
Sunday’s vote will show whether that tradition remains strong enough to survive the country’s most serious recent political rupture—and whether Carlos Vila Nova can persuade voters that independence from his former party is a source of strength rather than a sign of instability.
