The rapid rise of former general Roberto Vannacci is putting new pressure on Giorgia Meloni, pushing the Italian prime minister to reinforce the hard-line themes that powered her ascent while she tries to protect her broader conservative coalition ahead of the next general election.
Giorgia Meloni is facing an increasingly uncomfortable challenge from her own political flank. After several years spent consolidating her international credibility and presenting Italy’s government as a reliable conservative partner within Europe and NATO, the prime minister is again placing migration, national security and border control at the centre of her political message as Roberto Vannacci’s insurgent movement gains support among right-wing voters.
Vannacci, a former army general whose provocative positions on immigration and national identity transformed him from a military figure into a political celebrity, has rapidly established himself as one of the most disruptive forces on Italy’s right. His party, Futuro Nazionale, reached 7.6% in a recent YouTrend poll, overtaking the League and moving closer to Forza Italia. The same survey placed Meloni’s Brothers of Italy at 26.4%, while showing Vannacci drawing support from parts of the electorate traditionally aligned with the governing conservative bloc.
The result creates a strategic problem for Meloni. Since taking office, she has attempted to combine the nationalist positions that built Brothers of Italy with a more pragmatic governing image. On foreign policy she has remained firmly embedded in Italy’s Western alliances, while at European level she has sought influence through negotiation rather than confrontation. Vannacci, by contrast, offers voters a more uncompromising alternative, promoting tougher immigration policies, questioning key European Union initiatives and advocating what he describes as the “remigration” of foreigners considered insufficiently integrated.
Migration has therefore returned to the forefront of Meloni’s political strategy. Her government’s recent confrontation with Spain over controls imposed on travellers following the migration crisis around Ceuta has allowed Rome to frame border security once again as a national and European security question. Italy has defended the measures as necessary precautions, while Madrid has called them unjustified and discriminatory.
The harder rhetoric also comes as Meloni navigates a more difficult domestic political environment. Her coalition suffered a setback in July when a key element of its proposed electoral reform was unexpectedly defeated in parliament after members of the governing majority apparently broke ranks. Meanwhile, some polling has shown the combined centre-left opposition narrowly ahead of the existing governing right-wing coalition, increasing the importance of voters who might migrate toward Vannacci’s new movement.
Vannacci’s appeal is particularly significant because he is not simply competing for undecided voters. Much of his potential electorate sits inside the wider conservative constituency on which Meloni depends. Polling reported by Reuters suggests that a substantial majority of Vannacci supporters would favour cooperation with Meloni’s coalition, while many Brothers of Italy voters are also receptive to such an arrangement. That raises the possibility that Vannacci could eventually become both an electoral competitor and a potential coalition partner.
For Meloni, however, moving too far toward Vannacci carries risks of its own. The prime minister has spent much of her tenure demonstrating that a government rooted in Italy’s nationalist right can operate predictably inside European institutions. A prolonged competition over who can take the toughest positions on immigration, European integration or cultural issues could complicate that positioning and unsettle the more moderate components of her coalition.
The political calculation is therefore delicate. Ignoring Vannacci could allow him to consolidate a permanent force to the right of Brothers of Italy. Confronting him directly could amplify his visibility. Adopting parts of his political agenda may help Meloni prevent further defections, but it could also undermine the broader governing identity she has carefully constructed.
Italy’s next general election is due by 2027, leaving time for the balance of power on the right to change again. Yet Vannacci’s rapid advance already suggests that the election may not simply be a contest between Meloni and the centre-left. It may also become a battle over the future identity of the Italian right itself — and over whether Meloni can continue occupying both its nationalist base and its more institutional, governing centre.
