The far-right Alternative for Germany has recorded its strongest state-election result yet, transforming Saxony-Anhalt into a test of whether Germany’s mainstream parties can continue excluding the party from government.
Germany’s political establishment is confronting one of its most serious challenges since reunification after the far-right Alternative for Germany delivered a landslide victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, dramatically expanding its support and moving closer than ever to exercising significant governmental power.
The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) won 43.8% of the vote in Sunday’s state election, more than twice its 20.8% result five years earlier. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union suffered a devastating reversal, falling to roughly 17%, after governing Saxony-Anhalt continuously since 2002.
The scale of the result is unprecedented for the party.
AfD secured 39 of the 83 seats in the state parliament, just three short of the 42 required for an outright majority. That means it cannot govern alone, at least according to the final distribution of seats, while every major mainstream party continues to reject entering a coalition with it.
Yet the arithmetic leaves Germany facing an uncomfortable political reality.
Even if AfD remains outside government, nearly every viable coalition will now have to be constructed primarily around the objective of keeping the election’s largest party from power.
The result therefore represents far more than another strong showing for Germany’s populist right. It is a direct challenge to the political system that has successfully kept the far right away from executive authority for decades.
“We have made history”
AfD’s lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, Ulrich Siegmund, described the result as historic and argued that voters had given the party a clear mandate to govern.
At 35, Siegmund has become one of the most prominent figures in a younger generation of AfD politicians who have combined aggressive anti-establishment politics with sophisticated social-media campaigning.
The party’s message throughout the campaign centred heavily on immigration, economic frustration, hostility toward Berlin’s political establishment and opposition to several pillars of Germany’s current foreign policy.
AfD has called for a much tougher deportation policy and promotes what it terms “remigration”, a politically charged concept involving the removal of migrants who do not have the legal right to remain in Germany. Critics warn that elements of the party have promoted considerably broader interpretations that could threaten migrants with legal residency or even German citizenship.
The AfD rejects accusations that its policies are racist or anti-democratic and says mainstream political parties and institutions have attempted to stigmatise it because of its growing electoral strength.
Its opponents see matters differently.
Germany’s domestic intelligence authorities have classified the AfD organisation in Saxony-Anhalt as a proven right-wing extremist grouping, citing rhetoric concerning migrants, Muslims and German national identity. The party disputes that classification and has repeatedly described official scrutiny as politically motivated.
The collapse of Merz’s CDU
The result is particularly damaging for Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
The CDU had dominated politics in Saxony-Anhalt for more than two decades and won 37.1% of the vote in the previous state election.
Its fall to roughly 17% represents not simply a defeat but a collapse in support.
That has immediately intensified questions surrounding Merz’s leadership and his federal government’s ability to respond to economic stagnation, immigration concerns and growing dissatisfaction with Germany’s established political parties.
For AfD, Merz himself became part of the campaign.
Siegmund openly mocked the chancellor after the election, arguing that dissatisfaction with Merz had helped mobilise voters behind the AfD.
The wider political danger for the CDU is increasingly apparent: attempts to move rightward on migration risk legitimising AfD’s central arguments, while remaining firmly in the political centre can leave conservative voters dissatisfied and willing to defect to the populist right.
That dilemma has haunted German conservatives for years.
The Saxony-Anhalt result suggests it is becoming more difficult to manage.
Germany’s firewall faces its greatest test
Since AfD emerged as a significant political force, Germany’s traditional parties have maintained what is commonly called the Brandmauer, or firewall—a refusal to enter governing coalitions with the party.
That strategy has so far prevented AfD from obtaining executive authority despite increasingly strong election results.
Saxony-Anhalt may test the firewall more severely than any previous election.
AfD is not merely the largest party in the new parliament; it holds almost half the seats.
Any alternative administration will therefore require cooperation between parties with deeply conflicting political philosophies.
CDU politicians could potentially attempt to assemble a government dependent on support from parties to their left, creating precisely the kind of unusual alliance AfD has long used as evidence for its argument that Germany’s established parties form a single political establishment determined to exclude it.
That narrative could prove powerful.
AfD leaders are likely to argue that if parties representing substantially fewer voters combine solely to prevent them from governing, the firewall has become anti-democratic.
Mainstream parties counter that coalition-building is itself a fundamental feature of parliamentary democracy and that no party has an automatic right to govern merely because it finishes first.
Germany could consequently enter a prolonged period in which the question is no longer whether AfD can win elections, but whether the rest of the political system can continue preventing it from translating those victories into executive power.
Russia adds another layer of concern
The AfD’s relationship with Russia makes the outcome particularly significant internationally.
Elements of the party have consistently called for Germany to rebuild economic relations with Moscow, end sanctions and reconsider the scale of German military support for Ukraine.
Some prominent AfD politicians have expressed sympathy toward Russian positions or criticised Berlin’s confrontation with President Vladimir Putin.
Those positions differ sharply from Germany’s current security strategy, under which Berlin has become one of Ukraine’s most important military and financial supporters.
Security officials and political opponents have consequently raised concerns about what would happen if AfD politicians obtained access to state-level intelligence and sensitive security institutions.
Germany’s federal structure gives regional governments considerable authority.
States control important areas including policing, education, cultural policy and parts of domestic security administration.
An AfD-led state government would therefore be far more consequential than a symbolic electoral breakthrough.
It could give the party its first opportunity to demonstrate how its political programme would operate when translated into administrative power.
The eastern German divide
Saxony-Anhalt also illustrates the continuing political divide between eastern and western Germany.
More than three decades after reunification, many areas of the former East Germany continue to struggle with population decline, ageing communities, weaker economic performance and perceptions that eastern Germans remain underrepresented in positions of national influence.
Saxony-Anhalt has lost a substantial proportion of its population since reunification.
Economic insecurity and demographic decline have created fertile territory for parties promising radical political change.
AfD has successfully transformed those grievances into a broader challenge to Berlin.
Its campaign mixes opposition to immigration with criticism of climate policy, scepticism toward European integration, conservative cultural politics and anger at what supporters see as a distant political establishment.
The party has become particularly effective at building communities around those messages.
Rather than relying solely on conventional rallies, AfD politicians have increasingly used social media, festivals, informal political events and personality-driven campaigning to establish strong relationships with voters—especially younger audiences who consume relatively little traditional political news.
Immigration remains central
Migration nevertheless remains one of the most powerful drivers of AfD support.
Siegmund campaigned on proposals including tougher deportation measures and a dedicated task force for removing migrants without permission to remain in Germany.
The party has also attacked policies promoting multiculturalism and LGBTQ+ inclusion and has advocated a more nationalist approach to education and German historical identity.
Supporters argue that AfD is addressing concerns that mainstream parties ignored for too long, particularly regarding irregular migration, integration and pressure on public services.
Opponents argue that the party has exploited legitimate migration concerns to promote an exclusionary definition of German identity.
The conflict between those interpretations increasingly defines German politics.
And despite Saxony-Anhalt having a relatively low proportion of foreign-born residents compared with many western German states, immigration remained a powerful electoral issue—suggesting that attitudes toward migration are shaped not simply by local demographics but also by wider national perceptions.
A warning for Berlin ahead of 2029
The election’s importance extends far beyond Saxony-Anhalt’s approximately 2.1 million inhabitants.
AfD is already the largest opposition party in the Bundestag and has become a major national political force.
Recent polling has even placed it ahead of the CDU at times, something that would once have appeared almost unimaginable in post-war German politics.
The next federal election is scheduled for 2029.
That gives Germany’s mainstream parties several years to respond, but the Saxony-Anhalt result suggests that simply waiting for AfD support to decline may no longer be a credible strategy.
The party has survived repeated controversies, investigations, internal divisions and accusations of extremism.
Instead of collapsing, it has expanded.
That creates a strategic problem for its opponents.
If they refuse cooperation indefinitely, AfD may continue presenting itself as the only genuine opposition to an establishment bloc.
If they cooperate, even indirectly, they risk normalising a party many German institutions regard as extremist.
Neither option is politically comfortable.
The breakthrough without government
For now, Germany has avoided what would have been an even more dramatic moment: the installation of the first far-right state government of the post-war era.
AfD fell narrowly short of an outright majority, while Siegmund has indicated that he does not intend to rely on an unstable minority administration simply to obtain office.
But concentrating only on whether AfD immediately forms a government risks missing the larger significance of the election.
A party once considered peripheral has won almost 44% of the vote in a German state.
The dominant governing party there for more than two decades has been reduced to less than one fifth.
And the remaining parties must now construct a government in a parliament where nearly half the seats belong to a political movement they refuse to work with.
Germany’s firewall has therefore survived the election—but under greater pressure than ever before.
The deeper question is whether it can continue surviving if results like Saxony-Anhalt’s become increasingly common.
For AfD, September 6, 2026 may ultimately be remembered not simply as its largest electoral victory.
It may prove to be the moment when the debate in Germany changed from whether the far right could ever reach power to how long the political system could continue keeping it out.
