With the parliamentary election too close to call, Sweden could be on the verge of a historic political shift that brings the Sweden Democrats into government for the first time and tests the country’s long-standing liberal identity.

Sweden is heading into one of the closest elections in its modern political history, with the centre-left opposition and the governing right-wing bloc separated by only a narrow margin and the far-right Sweden Democrats potentially poised to enter government for the first time.

The country votes on Sunday, 13 September, with Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson seeking a second term against a centre-left opposition led by former prime minister Magdalena Andersson. Polling has tightened sharply during the final stages of the campaign, turning what earlier appeared to be a comfortable opposition advantage into an increasingly unpredictable contest.

One recent poll cited in Swedish election coverage placed the difference between the competing blocs at just 0.3 percentage points, underscoring how small movements among undecided and tactical voters could determine the composition of the next government. Other final polls have shown a somewhat larger centre-left advantage, including a Swedish Radio survey giving the opposition 50.8% against 47.6% for the government parties and Sweden Democrats.

But the central question surrounding the election goes beyond which bloc finishes first.

It is whether the Sweden Democrats, a nationalist party with origins in Sweden’s extremist far-right milieu, will move from supporting the government in parliament to holding ministerial office.

From Political Outsiders to Potential Ministers

The transformation of the Sweden Democrats is one of the most significant developments in Swedish politics of the past generation.

For years, mainstream parties refused formal cooperation with the party because of its history and nationalist ideology. That barrier began to collapse after the 2022 election, when Kristersson’s centre-right government became dependent on Sweden Democrat support in parliament.

Under the resulting arrangement, the party remained outside the cabinet but gained substantial influence over policy, particularly on immigration, crime and integration.

Kristersson has now gone considerably further.

He has made clear that, if his bloc wins, the Sweden Democrats could receive cabinet positions, formally integrating the party into national government for the first time. Reuters reported that the party is polling at around 19%, making it one of Sweden’s largest political forces and potentially indispensable to a right-wing majority.

For Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Åkesson, that would mark the culmination of a decades-long effort to turn the party from a political pariah into a mainstream force.

Immigration at the Centre of Sweden’s Political Shift

Immigration remains one of the issues most closely associated with the Sweden Democrats’ rise.

Sweden was once internationally known for one of Europe’s most generous asylum policies and for a political culture strongly associated with multiculturalism, welfare provision and international human rights advocacy.

That landscape has changed dramatically.

The government has tightened asylum rules, ended permanent residency for many refugees, expanded deportations and imposed tougher welfare requirements. Asylum applications have fallen to their lowest level in decades.

The Sweden Democrats want to go further still.

Party figures have called for stronger assimilation requirements, tougher residency rules and a more explicit emphasis on Swedish language, culture and social norms. Critics argue that some of those proposals risk marginalising immigrant communities and weakening legal protections for minorities.

Supporters, by contrast, say Sweden’s previous immigration model failed to integrate newcomers effectively and contributed to social segregation, pressure on public services and criminality.

The debate has reshaped the political centre.

Even the Social Democrats, historically associated with a more liberal approach to migration, have adopted significantly tougher positions in response to changing public opinion.

Crime, Security and the Welfare State

Immigration is not the only issue driving voters.

Gang violence, healthcare, the cost of living and the future of Sweden’s welfare system have all featured prominently during the campaign.

The government points to sharp reductions in shootings and lower asylum numbers as evidence that its approach has worked. Kristersson has argued that cooperation with the Sweden Democrats has delivered greater political stability and enabled his administration to act more decisively on organised crime and public security.

The opposition counters that Sweden’s public services have weakened and that the country needs greater investment in healthcare, schools and welfare rather than deeper tax cuts or increasingly punitive social policy.

There is, however, considerable overlap between the blocs in several areas.

Both broadly support increased defence spending, continued military and financial assistance to Ukraine and stronger measures against organised crime. Sweden’s NATO membership, completed in 2024, is also no longer the dividing issue it once might have been.

That convergence has made the ideological battle over the Sweden Democrats themselves even more important.

Sweden’s International Image at Stake

Critics of the right-wing bloc argue that the election could affect something less tangible but equally significant: Sweden’s global reputation.

For decades, the country cultivated an image as a strong supporter of refugee protection, international development, gender equality and human rights.

Former liberal politicians and civil-society campaigners have warned that formal Sweden Democrat participation in government could accelerate what they see as an erosion of those values.

Their concerns centre not only on immigration policy but also on cultural policy, minority rights, freedom of expression and the broader tone of national politics.

The Sweden Democrats reject the suggestion that their rise represents an attack on democracy. They portray themselves instead as a corrective to what they consider decades of political complacency on immigration, crime and national identity.

The party has also sought to distance itself from its past. It apologised in 2025 for earlier neo-Nazi and antisemitic elements within its history, part of a wider effort to present itself as a conventional nationalist conservative movement.

Whether voters accept that transformation remains one of the defining questions of the election.

A Broader European Pattern

Sweden’s vote also fits into a wider transformation taking place across Europe.

Nationalist and far-right parties have gained influence in several countries, sometimes entering coalition governments and elsewhere reshaping mainstream parties from opposition.

Italy, Finland, Croatia and the Czech Republic have all seen nationalist or radical-right parties participate in government, while comparable movements have become increasingly influential in countries such as France and Germany.

Sweden was once considered less susceptible to that trend.

That assumption no longer holds.

The political debate has shifted substantially to the right on migration and national identity, even among parties that remain opposed to the Sweden Democrats.

In that sense, the election may confirm a transformation that has already occurred rather than initiate an entirely new one.

Coalition Arithmetic Could Decide Everything

Even if the centre-left wins more votes, forming a stable government will not necessarily be straightforward.

Andersson’s potential governing bloc includes the Social Democrats, Greens, Left Party and Centre Party. They broadly agree on strengthening public services but remain divided on taxation, energy policy and the role of the Left Party in government.

The Centre Party has resisted serving in the same cabinet as the Left, creating a significant obstacle to coalition formation.

The right has its own vulnerabilities.

The Liberal Party’s ability to cross Sweden’s 4% parliamentary threshold could prove decisive. Tactical voting may therefore play an unusually important role, as centre-right voters attempt to keep smaller allied parties inside parliament.

The latest Swedish Radio poll placed the Liberals at 5.4%, above the threshold after an apparent surge in tactical support.

In such a close contest, small changes in support for minor parties could shift dozens of parliamentary seats and determine which side controls the 349-member Riksdag.

A Vote About Sweden’s Political Identity

At its core, this election is about more than the next prime minister.

It is also a referendum on how far Sweden’s political transformation should go.

A victory for the right would likely bring the Sweden Democrats into government and formally complete their journey from isolation to power.

A centre-left victory would prevent that outcome, but it would not necessarily reverse the tougher migration, crime and integration policies that have become embedded across Swedish politics.

That may be the most important consequence of the past decade.

The Sweden Democrats no longer need to win an election outright to reshape Sweden. Much of the political debate has already moved toward positions they championed long before they became acceptable within the mainstream.

Sunday’s result will determine whether that influence remains indirect — or finally reaches the cabinet table.