AI-linked demand and transport activity are helping keep merchandise trade above trend, even as geopolitical risks and energy pressures cloud the outlook.
Global trade is showing signs of resilience despite geopolitical turbulence, high energy prices and a likely moderation in growth over the coming months, according to the World Trade Organization’s latest Goods Trade Barometer.
The WTO’s leading indicator for merchandise trade stood at 101.7 in April 2026, down slightly from 102.3 in January, but still above the baseline level of 100. A reading above 100 indicates that trade volumes remain above recent trend, suggesting that the global goods economy continues to expand even as momentum cools.
The latest reading points to a mixed but broadly stable picture. The WTO said global merchandise trade had held up despite the drag from conflict in the Middle East and elevated energy prices. The organization noted that the negative impact of geopolitical disruption has been partly offset by strong demand for electronic components, particularly those linked to artificial intelligence investment.
The clearest source of strength came from the electronic components index, which rose to 105.5, firmly above trend. Transport indicators also remained positive, with air freight at 102.2 and container shipping at 102.4, although both suggested a slower pace of expansion than earlier in the year. Export orders, a key forward-looking measure, stood slightly above trend at 100.5.
Other sectors were weaker. The WTO reported that agricultural raw materials, at 98.9, and automotive products, at 99.8, were slightly below trend. That divergence underscores how uneven the current trade cycle has become: AI-related supply chains are generating momentum, while more traditional sectors face softer demand and cost pressures.
The barometer’s signal is important because it offers an early indication of merchandise trade trends two to three months ahead. Its latest decline suggests trade growth may moderate in the near term, but not collapse. Instead, the WTO’s figures point to a global trading system that remains surprisingly durable after years of shocks, including tariff uncertainty, shipping disruptions, war-related energy volatility and shifting supply chains.
The WTO’s March outlook projected merchandise trade growth of 1.9% in 2026 under its baseline scenario. Under a high-energy-price scenario linked to Middle East tensions, that figure could fall to 1.4%. However, sustained investment in artificial intelligence could add as much as 0.5 percentage points to trade growth, according to the organization.
The result is a cautiously optimistic outlook. Global trade is no longer accelerating at the pace seen during earlier rebound phases, but it continues to outperform what might be expected given the scale of political and economic risks. For policymakers and businesses, the message is clear: trade remains resilient, but increasingly dependent on a narrower set of growth engines, especially technology and AI-linked manufacturing.
That resilience may now face a more difficult test. If energy prices remain high, if Middle East tensions further disrupt key shipping lanes, or if tariff pressures intensify, the current above-trend performance could weaken. For now, however, the WTO’s latest indicator suggests that global commerce is bending rather than breaking.
