Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has warned that NATO risks splitting into separate camps if European allies fail to move together toward the alliance’s new 5 percent defense and security spending target.

Speaking at a joint press conference in Berlin with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Baltic leaders, Nausėda said the central challenge for NATO is no longer simply agreeing on ambitious defense goals, but ensuring that all members implement them. He cautioned that if some countries rapidly raise spending while others remain near 2 or 2.5 percent of GDP, the alliance could divide into “two or three parts,” weakening solidarity and the principle of collective defense.

The warning comes as NATO prepares for its July 7–8 summit in Ankara, where burden-sharing, Russia deterrence and U.S. pressure on European allies are expected to dominate the agenda. NATO members are under growing pressure to convert political promises into real military capacity, including troops, air defense, ammunition production, cyber resilience and infrastructure protection.

Lithuania is positioning itself as one of the alliance’s most aggressive defense spenders. Nausėda said Vilnius is allocating 5.38 percent of GDP to core defense this year, with another 1.5 percent directed toward dual-use infrastructure and security-related needs, bringing total defense and security spending close to 7 percent of GDP.

That level far exceeds the 5 percent framework agreed by NATO leaders at The Hague, which includes 3.5 percent of GDP for core military expenditure and 1.5 percent for broader security-related investment such as infrastructure, cybersecurity and resilience. The target is intended to be reached by 2035, but frontline states on NATO’s eastern flank argue that the timetable must be treated as a strategic necessity rather than a symbolic promise.

Nausėda’s remarks reflect a broader anxiety among Baltic and Eastern European governments: that unequal defense commitments could create a two-speed NATO, with countries closest to Russia carrying a heavier burden while others delay costly military upgrades. Such a divide, he argued, would undermine the political cohesion that gives NATO’s Article 5 security guarantee its credibility.

Lithuania’s security posture has hardened sharply since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The country borders both Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, and it has pushed for stronger NATO deterrence, a permanent German brigade on Lithuanian territory and greater flexibility in nuclear deterrence arrangements. Lithuania has also moved to amend constitutional restrictions that currently limit the possible stationing of nuclear weapons and foreign military bases, citing a deteriorating regional security environment.

The debate over spending is also closely tied to transatlantic politics. Washington has repeatedly pressed European allies to assume more responsibility for their own defense, while concerns persist over the durability of U.S. commitment to NATO. For European governments, the challenge is political as well as military: higher defense budgets compete with social spending, debt limits and domestic opposition in many countries.

Still, Nausėda’s message was direct. NATO’s credibility, he suggested, will depend on whether allies move together. A spending pledge that only some members fulfill could become less a sign of strength than a new source of division — precisely the outcome, he warned, that Russia would welcome.